Voters consolidating around NPP/JVP and SJB nationally, reveals IHP Poll

COLOMBO (News 1st): A survery by the Institute for Health Policy revealed that nationally voters are consolidating around the NPP/JVP and SJB, and around ITAK and SJB in the northern Province, with support for the SLPP, SLFP and UNP falling.

It noted that overall, NPP/JVP support surged in February giving it a clear lead with 43% of likely General Election voters, compared with 30% for the SJB. The SLPP, UNP and ITAK were far behind with support of 4% of likely voters each, and SLFP support remained at 2%.

It goes on to note that NPP/JVP lead in February would have been  arger if not for a gap in voter enthusiasm with its supporters saying they are less likely to vote.

IHP’s latest MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that in the 12 months since February 2022 when SLPP support last peaked, the NPP/JVP has gained 30 points and the SJB 11 points. 

Meanwhile, the SLPP, and SLFP have lost 28 and 15 points respectively, and the UNP has seen its support fluctuate but end only two points higher. 

During these twelve months, support for the NPP/JVP has fluctuated, peaking in April and in July 2022, and then again currently, but over the longer term its support has steadily risen. 

In contrast, the increase in support for the SJB has been slower but also less volatile. 

The fluctuations in support for the NPP/JVP indicate that it has benefited successively from successive swings in floating voters. During February–April 2022, it gained support from the SLPP and SLFP; then during May–July 2022 it benefited from more voters abandoning the SLPP; and most recently from October 2022 it has gained from declines in support for the SLPP and UNP.